The Likud Voter

     Prime Minister Netanyahu is a political genius or a political hack, a man of deep principles or pure expedience, a worthy captain of Israel’s fortunes during perilous times or a clueless, shifty, power-hungry follower of trends and polls. Or perhaps all of the above.

     One thing is certain: more than most politicians he has learned from his mistakes in his first tenure as prime minister in the late 1990’s and is able to control his political destiny in a way that for most previous premiers was the stuff of dreams. Routinely, Israel’s prime ministers since the Six Day War have resigned in disgrace, lost re-election or met untimely fates. Few have been re-elected, and most have been forced into early elections through the collapse of their coalition and then scorned by the voters. Netanyahu has been spared that – essentially he can serve unimpeded until October 2013 or call for new elections at his pleasure – by undermining the main source of power in Israel: the hyper-partisan media that controls the popular and electoral fate of almost all public officials.

He accomplished that through a typically-clever and somewhat underhanded maneuver that he parlayed into media immunity: the co-option of the Labor party, and especially Defense Minister Ehud Barak (the keen strategist who presided over the hasty retreat from Lebanon in 2000), into his government. This took some doing. Recall that Likud had the second­-most mandates after the election in 2009 – 27 seats to the 28 won by Kadima (itself a Likud offshoot). By all rights, Kadima’s Tzippi Livni should have been asked to form the government. But Netanyahu pre-empted that by offering the Ichud HaLeumi (the National Union Party, led by Ketzele) to join his coalition – giving him a guaranteed 31 seats to Livni’s guaranteed 28. Netanyahu then formed his coalition – and promptly betrayed the NU by summarily kicking them out of the coalition, bringing in Labor, and achieving his parliamentary majority. It was a scheme that the NU predicted, but classic Netanyahu – and the National Union remains in opposition.

That enabled Netanyahu to partner with Ehud Barak, a once-darling of the left, and that itself shielded the PM from accusations of being an “extreme right-winger,” a “warmonger,” a “destroyer of peace,” and several other monikers left over from 1999. It became impossible for the leftist media to assault Netanyahu – in either his peace-making or his defense policies – because Barak, the stalwart of Israel’s established leftist party, stood at his side. And even when Labor imploded and Barak detached himself and formed his own party, the die was already cast. Using and abusing the National Union was sneaky; linking with Barak was brilliant and an echo of Menachem Begin’s appointment of Moshe Dayan, another Labor icon, as his first Foreign Minister, to the consternation of the Likud even then.

In effect, it was brilliant maneuvering. Excluding the National Union on the right and Kadima/Meretz on the left enabled Netanyahu to position himself right in the center politically, diplomatically, and more importantly, popularly.

Of course, all these personnel games obscure a more basic point: Netanyahu’s policies are inscrutable, except to the extent that they serve to keep him in power. There is no good recommendation on how to resolve the Iran problem. Obviously regime change is the ideal solution, but it is not imminent or even foreseeable (for that missed opportunity, Barack Obama deserves obvious opprobrium). Regime change requires both resources that Israel does not have and the extensive cooperation and leadership of an American president that is absent, or so it seems. Diplomacy is an ongoing joke, as neither the pleas of the striped-pants set or the much-vaunted sanctions will have any impact. To bomb Iran is certainly not easy nor will it necessarily be effective. Israel’s plight is not helped by Obama administration officials’ musings about when Israel will bomb, how they will bomb, what they will target, and how they should not do it. My guess is that some combination of air power and inside sabotage will be necessary, with the latter playing more of a role. But Netanyahu is in an unenviable position – a strike against Iran will result in Hezbollah unleashing its 50,000 rockets that now pervade Lebanon (see, Barak, above) against Israel’s north and center. That will be devastating. A rocket and missile attack from the south can also be expected. So, it is untenable that Iran should acquire a nuclear weapons capability, and difficult to foresee how it can reasonably be prevented. I don’t envy the Prime Minister.

Iran aside, what has the Likud voter gained from his Prime Minister? Likud voters are nationalists, pro-free enterprise, pro-defense, pro-settlement and pro-tradition. They also seem to be among the least discerning voters in the world, because they never quite get what they vote for. The Likud’s inferiority complex usually induces them (Shamir was the exception) into reaching out to the leftist parties to occupy key positions. The odds are slim that Netanyahu would have been elected had he announced before the vote his intention to appoint Ehud Barak the Defense Minister. Certainly the votes Likud attracted from the settlers would have dissipated had they known of Barak’s second coming, recalling the stranglehold he placed on settlement during his prior tenures.

The Likud voter would have abandoned Netanyahu had they anticipated the first-ever settlement freeze that lasted almost a year that accomplished nothing diplomatically or politically, except – again – buying Netanyahu some peace and quiet from the Israeli media and the Obama government. But it set back the settlement movement for years, announced to the world Israel’s uncertain and hesitant claim to its ancestral land, and has still not been fully reversed. Barak maintains a tight lid on building permits, in effect sheltering Netanyahu from criticism – as if he is not supportive of the policy. But Likud voters look away.

Netanyahu has also presided over a number of settlement demolitions in recent months, almost all carried out in the dead of night, and all under Barak’s auspices. This adds to the Likud’s sorry record of settlement destruction – including Gush Katif and north Shomron, and as far back as Yamit. It seems that only the Likud destroys Jewish settlements; if a leftist party would try, an opposition Likud would scream bloody murder, betrayal of the land of Israel, an exile mentality and even worse invective. But when it ascends to power, all that is forgotten by the leaders – and, apparently, by their voters. Curious.

The recent Migron “resolution” is a case in point. This “outpost” of approximately 90 families just a few miles north of Yerushalayim, who have lived there for years, in permanent housing, with community centers, shuls and even a basketball court, has been subjected to endless litigation based on the claim that it was built on Arab land. When that claim was rejected several months ago by the High Court – no Arab produced any title to the land and the whole lawsuit was a leftist fabrication – one would have thought that Migron’s status would have been finalized. Instead, a compromise was reached that Migron would be moved two hilltops over, and its buildings either razed or maintained (depending on who explains the compromise). But, if the land is state land, and Migron can be legalized, then why should it be moved ? This has yet to be explained, but it seems reasonable to suggest it is only to torment and weaken the settlement movement – that has, nonetheless, endorsed the resolution (probably hoping that it will never be implemented, which is always possible).

It is striking that Israel is a center-right country that is always governed by a center-left, or left, government. That is hard to fathom. There are persistent rumors about the mercurial Netanyahu who has alternately offered to surrender the Golan (14 years ago), the Jordan Valley (two weeks ago), and who consistently floats trial balloons of possible surrenders that lead his interlocutors to feel misled and betrayed, and should mystify his voters – if they paid attention. But they don’t. The Likud voter seems to respond to contrived grievances, the “dire” consequences if some other party is elected, and promises that are never kept. It is as if power is the real objective – and the patronage goodies being in power permits – and policies are secondary.

Most people on the right, and these days many on the left, always saw the “peace process” as a chimera, and today as a dead letter. It would be nice – and honest – to actually hear that from an Israeli prime minister, which would undercut the traditional Arab assertion – yesterday, it was King Abdullah’s turn, from the mythical kingdom of Jordan – that Israel is at fault for the lack of peace. (He is a tiresome figure.) The traditional Likudnik sees through that bogus argument and is unafraid about challenging it openly. Certainly the articulate Netanyahu can – but won’t, again, because such honesty is politically incorrect, even as the failure to articulate such truths sets the stage for the next round of concessions.

Credit Netanyahu for Israel’s economic vibrancy, and, in another wise departure from his last term, staying out of the media. His appearances in public are minimal, his interviews are rare and controlled, and he seems more in control focused on power and control, the politician’s stock in trade. He often leads “from behind,” like Obama. He is a weather vane, seeing where the people are and following them. He opposed the Tal Law (on Haredi service in the military) after the High Court invalidated it, after previously supporting it. He is outraged and rhetorically robust after a terrorist attack, when the people are, but usually tolerates the daily rocket attacks on the south, because the people do as well. He promises reform of the appointments to the leftist High Court, and then scuttles any reform proposals. He will toss the right a bone, and then the left another bone; he is adept at feeding the religious parties a glatt sandwich (money for their causes) and the seculars some “white” meat (legislation). He both co-opted and marginalized Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. Everyone gets something of what they want but never all of what they want, which would be divisive and politically fatal.

It has been a masterful performance but the question remains: is this what the average Likud voter wants or expects? Perhaps. Is this the best that Israel’s right-wing voters can do? Likely not. The time has come for a genuine Religious Zionist to aspire to leadership – not of a small sector of the population, and not a flame-thrower – but a person of ideas, substance, wisdom and character. To those who suggest there is no such person extant, try this: Rabbi Professor Daniel Hershkovitz, current Minister of Science and Technology, a professor of mathematics at the Technion, the Rav of several communities in Haifa, and currently the leader of the Bayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) party. While one can always pick out a policy or statement with which to disagree, he is judicious, honest, has good instincts and values and a strong ideological commitment that is delivered in reasonable doses.

The flirtations with secular-right parties have often ended as disastrously as the flirtations with the secular-left parties. Binyamin Netanyahu has been a solid bridge figure, and the current stability has to win him plaudits, but more leadership is required. The Likud might still win, but a strong Religious-Zionist contingent becomes a more powerful and natural ally. More importantly, it will show self-confidence of the religious voting public that there indeed are people who represent both Torah and political leadership.

Memo to right-wingers: if you want right, vote right.

Unhinged

   “It is not an exaggeration to say that the position an individual takes on the conflict between Israel and the Arabs is a near-infallible guide to their general view of the world. Those who believe that Israel is the historic victim of the Arabs – and that its behavior, while not perfect, is generally as good as could be expected given that it is fighting for its existence against an enemy using the weapons of religious war – typically have a rational, non-ideological approach to the world, arriving at conclusions on the basis of evidence. Those who believe that Israel is the regional bully hell-bent on oppressing the Palestinians, and who equate it with Nazism or apartheid, are generally moral and cultural relativists who invert truth and lies, right and wrong over a wide range of issues, and are incapable of seeing that their beliefs do not accord with reality.” Indeed, such commentary is not only “not an exaggeration,” but it is also one of the precise and pointed conclusions of Melanie Philips, the British journalist, self-described “agnostic although traditionally minded Jew” (only a Jew could possibly concoct such a unique self-description) in her insightful 2010 book “The World Turned Upside Down: the Global Battle over God, Truth and Power.” Taking as her starting point the relentless war against Israel and the Jewish people, she broadens her focus to encompass similar departures from reality inherent in positions of the left on religion, culture, science, morality and values itself. In short, the war against Israel is a major battlefield in a wider war – against traditional conceptions of God, truth and historic moral norms – and all relate to an abandonment of reason and the denigration of truth. That phenomenon is generally perceived by Israelis and other supporters of Israel, who wage a valiant but unsuccessful struggle to “educate” the world on the justice of Israel’s cause. The inversion of reason is patently clear, even most recently. The world community failed (and still fails) to condemn Arab rocket attacks on Israel’s southern towns and cities, which continue as recently as…today. Those attacks prompted Israel to launch Operation Cast Lead in 2006, which resulted in some civilian casualties among Gazans used as human shields by their terrorist hosts. So the world condemned…Israel for attacking civilians, Israel for using Arab civilians as human shields, and Israel for defending itself – while offering no alternative. Most of the Arab dead were terrorists, a few hundred were civilians caught in the crossfire, and the total dead numbered some 1300 – that is, about one-quarter of the number of Syrian civilians who have been murdered by the Syrian government in the last half-year without drawing any condemnation from an international body. This is more than hypocrisy – it is a pathology that perceives Jews, and to some extent the Western world and its value system, as inherently guilty no matter what the charge or the facts. But the examples are legion. The flippancy with which the world embraces accusations of Israeli massacres, or notions such as the “illegality” of an occupation (even though the sovereign from whom Israel captured those territories in a defensive war – Jordan – has long abandoned its rights to that area, and such concepts are not applied anywhere else on the globe) or even the disproved death of the Dura child in 2000 are all evidence of a soaring flight from reality. Reason, truth, justice and morality are today currencies in search of a market that traffics mainly in relativity, emotions, fantasies and feel-good politics and lifestyles. The same departures from the real world are noticeable in other spheres. Science, in some respects, has abandoned its traditional processes in order to promote what some perceive as desirable social goals. This is most manifest in the alarmism of global warming, the ridicule and professional excoriation of dissenters, and the pronouncement that the issue of man-made climate change is “settled.” Really? “If a scientific argument is said to be “over,” settled though a “consensus” of unchallengeable conclusions, it stops being science and turns instead into dogma.” This, despite the fact that hundreds of scientists have dissented from the dogma, and been denounced as heretics in turn. Furthermore, she notes, “scientific triumphalism” has presumed to pronounce on matters beyond its ken, especially metaphysics and religion. Believers in intelligent design are derided, even as evidence of a Designer is far more plausible than the alternative. Worse, the denigration of God is repugnant but also misplaced, as, logically, the Creator of nature stands outside of nature and is therefore not subject to “proof” through nature. We “know” G-d through His deeds. Although it is reasonable to assume based on available evidence that the universe had a Creator or Rational Designer, our acceptance of G-d stems from His reach into history, especially Jewish history. That, indeed, is the famous comment of the Kuzari as to why the Decalogue begins with “I am the Lord your G-d who took you out of Egypt” and not the G-d who created the world. The scientists who are in the forefront of the new atheist movement (too many of them are Jews) have abandoned both reason and humility in their hostility to the idea of G-d. Scientific believers – common throughout history and still prevalent today – need not apply to their club, even though, “at the heart of all science lies the conviction that the universe is orderly…Atheism, by contrast, holds that the world comes from a random and therefore irrational source….” That hostility, and those of others who denigrate and castigate every religion except for one (see below), is born of the secular inquisition that has elevated the “privatization of morality” (Philips has a gift for phraseology) into a sacrament. All moral norms are repudiated, in effect reproducing a 14th-century heretical Christian sect of libertines known as the “Free Spirits.” Its modern incarnation has warred against the very concept of sin, seeking to de-stigmatize promiscuity, illegitimacy, and homosexuality. Again, dissenters from liberal Orthodoxy are figuratively burned at the stake, either shunned by society or mocked by the mass media. For some it is professional suicide, like the Italian politician whose nomination as EU Justice Minister was rejected in 2004 because he had once called homosexuality a “sin.” Dissenters are demonized, not engaged in dialogue. The assertions are considered self-justifying and self-explanatory, and all critics are denounced as “–phobics” of one variety or another (xenophobes, homophobes, Islamophobes, etc.). The favored religion is, ironically, Islam, for which no criticism is tolerated. Free speech codes in many countries have been amended to criminalize criticisms of Islam; such forbearance is not afforded any other religion. One is not allowed to point out the violent tendencies of the modern Muslim, who is then justified in becoming violent against the utterers. Truth is turned on its head. One must robotically repeat the mantra of “Islam, the religion of peace,” even if all evidence points to the contrary. Yale University, publishing a scholarly work on the Danish cartoon controversy, refused to allow the book to re-print the very cartoons in question – deference that is not shown to any other religion or ideology. The left – the home of feminists, homosexual activists and the similarly situated – finds itself, without any sense of its own preposterousness, wildly antagonistic to Israel and sympathetic to its Islamic foes – societies where women seeking liberation and homosexuals are routinely stoned, male supremacy reigns and modernity is repudiated. Modern journalism has been corrupted in that truth and objectivity are disdained in pursuit of a “greater truth” that prefers advocacy to reportage. Religious authority has been undermined, with alternative lifestyles becoming mainstream and the basic family unit torn apart and demeaned. Taboos have become taboo. Anything goes. “Feelings” matter more than responsibility, morality, education or accomplishment. Barack Obama was propelled to the presidency by cultish worshippers who ignored traditional modes of analysis and were swept away by fantasy, charisma and a contrived articulacy. “He made them (Americans) feel good about themselves; he stood for hope, love, reconciliation, youthfulness and fairies at the bottom of the garden.” His radical associations and incoherent political musings did not matter; he was the American Princess Diana. And his Cairo speech – in embracing the Arab narrative of Israel’s creation and fantastic notions of the Arab contributions to civilization – was “a startling example of this genuflection to the forces of irrationality and antimodernity.” These movements, taken together, represent an attack on Western civilization and a denial of reason, even as they claim to be fostering reason and saving civilization. Indeed, the left in all its forms is utopian, “warriors in the most noble causes. The greens believe they will save the planet. The leftists believe they will create the brotherhood of man… And the Islamists believe they will create the Kingdom of God on earth.” They are totalitarians who brook no deviation, and who seek to attain their ends through manipulation and/or coercion. They advocate the “totalitarianism of virtue.” Unusual for a self-described agnostic, Philips extols the “marriage of religion and reason in Judaism,” lauding the Bible as the fount of all truth and morality – and reason. Those who perceive a conflict between religion and science understand neither very well. Those who dismiss the Bible’s account of creation forfeit the clearest understanding of man’s origins and purposes. And she rightly identifies “learning” as the “very highest calling” in Judaism – learning, with all its questions, arguments, challenges, resolutions – and reason. It is unsurprising that many of Israel’s enemies – from radical Islam, to the progressive Christian churches, to atheists and leftists of all stripes – often inhabit the same moral and intellectual universe. And make no mistake about it: the old cliché about being anti-Zionist and not a simple old Jew-hater (once known as the anti-Semite) is dead and buried. Those who hate Israel – the modern incarnation of the Jewish people, the center of the Jewish national idea – hate Jews. That some of them are also Jews should not be surprising to anyone who recalls the torment caused to medieval Jews by Jewish apostates. Anyone who claims to love Jews but hates Israel – just hates Jews. “Israel” is a fig leaf, much as the euphemism “anti-Semite” was once utilized to prettify Jew hatred as well. Rare is the analysis of modern politics and culture that will be as meaningful and pointed a century from now. Melanie Philips has succeeded remarkably in identifying the ideology that links all of Israel’s enemies – and in defining our era and its perils. And our challenge: “In repudiating Jewish teaching and its moral codes, the West has turned upon the modern world itself. In turning upon the State of Israel, the West is undermining its defense against the enemies of modernity and the Western civilization that produced it. The great question is whether it actually wants to defend reason and modernity anymore, or whether Western civilization has now reached a point where it has stopped trying to survive.” If the battle is to be fought and won on conventional terms, “The World Turned Upside Down” will have been the clarion call that awakened modern man from his political slumber and moral obtuseness.

War on Religion

     Republicans were handed an unexpected gift this week when the Obama administration overreached and mandated – as part of its health care law – that Catholic organizations provide to their employees insurance coverage for several activities or products that are anathema to the Church – contraception, aborting drugs and sterilization. The churches were exempt – but not Catholic hospitals and charities – and the administration denied their edict applies to the abortion-inducing drugs – but no matter. Catholics were up in arms, precipitating the mass reading (forgive the pun) by priests in churches last Sunday of both the decree and the harsh, negative response of the Catholic bishops to the Obama diktat.

   One might recall that President Obama bought the last several votes he needed to pass his health coverage bill from Catholic Democrat Congressmen by assuring them that Catholic organizations would be exempt from these mandates. (He now reiterates that he meant churches and schools but not other organizations. The Congressmen now feel duped. Shame on them anyway.) Many Catholic leaders have vowed civil disobedience – just refusing to obey the law and its mandates. And the law itself, whose constitutionality will be heard next month in the US Supreme Court, should be challenged again because the hundreds of waivers only provided to companies favored by the administration create an unbalanced and unfair application of the law in any event.

Only true believers would seek to antagonize an entire voting bloc in an election year, and the Obama administration – the radical left of American life – perceives this issue as one of rights rather than morality or religion. Certainly, this decree panders to the feminist-left for whom abortion rights are a sacrament. But more importantly, Obama and his minions are in the vanguard of those who in the recent past have succeeded in the “privatization of morality,” in Melanie Philips’ felicitous phrase. They passionately reject the notion that religion, a divine-based morality that is actualized through divinely-inspired law, has any real validity or should be accorded any respect or deference in the modern era. They see it as archaic, backward, and the precipitant of untold wars – mostly true, until the 20th century, whose wars and exterminations were largely the work of the political and atheist left (think Communism and, for the most part, fascism). Nonetheless, to man who is now the measure of all things, one who governs his life and shapes his public policy conclusions based on spiritual insight is deemed repugnant to democratic life. Religion, to this way of thinking, should be relegated to the churches and synagogues until it withers and dies, to be replaced by the new world order of reason and enlightenment. It should certainly have no right to be heard in public matters.

Thus, the administration exercised its tin ear and argued to the Supreme Court (in the recent Hosanna-Tabor case) that a religious school should not have the right to dismiss a math teacher who also performs religious functions but should have to follow the existing labor laws. The Court – this, most divided Court – rejected that argument 9-0, a judicial smack down of epic proportions, ruling that both the First Amendment Establishment Clause and the Free Exercise Clause prohibit the Government from interfering in ministerial decisions. It was the first time in a long time that the Free Exercise clause (prohibiting Congress from making any law prohibiting the “Free Exercise” of religion) was bolstered. Certainly, Obama – adjunct professor of Constitutional Law that he was – should have known this before dispatching his Solicitor General to argue this matter. But the left is often blind to religion, its demands on the faithful and the superiority of its laws –preferring the rule of man.

One need not be Catholic to perceive the devastating effect on religious life that these edicts have (Or might have had, if the decision had gone the other way). Of course, Catholic employees at these institutions never anticipated having coverage for these situations, so it is not as if anything was taken away from them. And it again calls into question the troubling, coercive, heavy hand of government that seeks to micromanage every aspect of our lives – including what health insurance plans must cover. (Why can’t people just choose what they want covered, like from a menu of options? It would dramatically lower health coverage costs, as most people are forced to pay for things they don’t need or want because of these crushing mandates.) But the main effect of the war on religion is to sow distrust between religious institutions and government that should not, and need not, exist in American life.

For example, every same-sex marriage law to date bears an exemption for religious institutions. A rabbi need not perform them, nor must a shul host such an event. (Caterers, photographers, orchestras, halls, etc. are not so fortunate and can easily be sued by state “Human Rights Commissions” for refusing to accommodate such events.) But for how long? Personally, I would never trust the application of such a law, which requires only one leftist judge to rule that the “exemption” is “offensive, odious, hateful, racist, etc.” That is one reason – but there are, of course, others – why these laws meet with such resistance by most religious groups. In a society where religious sensitivities are trampled upon, even the ground is not the limit. There is no telling the depths to which society may fall.

The bedrock of American life is its moral core that has been steadily eroded for almost fifty years, leaving in its wake broken or dysfunctional homes, skyrocketing out-of-wedlock births, aimless youth who just want to protest and occupy, absentee fathers and sometimes mothers, and a relentless cycle of poverty and misfortune for millions.

Politicians are not always credible in advocating moral values, but Republicans have a golden opportunity here to convert the Catholic vote, angered as it is by the lack of discipline and heavy-handedness of the administration. They should exploit this blunder, before it is reversed, as it will inevitably be reversed – either through the political system or through the courts. They should remind people of faith that the ideology of the left that consecrates the pursuit of immorality (and frankly, has little use for a religion-based nationalism, on which the State of Israel was founded) is today embodied in the Obama administration and its policies. And those who fight this decree should have the support of the Jewish people as well.

The Newt Challenge

Newt Gingrich is brilliant, mercurial, temperamental, eloquent, feisty, occasionally nasty, haughty, successful, acerbic, undisciplined, unpredictable and immensely talented. He clearly exceeds in originality all other candidates in this year’s election, and most presidents of the last century. He has an idea for every issue, and sometimes three or four, and a solution to every problem. He is assumed leadership positions wherever he has been and quickly flamed out after initial successes. Where have we seen this dynamic before ?  In baseball.

Newt Gingrich is the Billy Martin of politics.

Billy Martin managed five teams and was successful with each one, most famously with the Yankees from whom he was fired five times. That itself must be a record, and explicit evidence of his hard-driving personality. He brought teams from baseball oblivion to the mountaintop, winning division titles with Minnesota and Detroit, a world championship with the Yankees, and taking Texas from last place to second-place in one season. But he never lasted long in any one job. His peers admired and despised him, his bosses hired and loathed him, and those who knew him best seemed to like him the least.

The similarities are uncanny. Like Martin in baseball, Newt took the Republicans from a position of permanent inferiority in Congress to majority status – and then within a relatively short time offended his supporters and resigned. He took a bad team and made them play well – but could not sustain it for more than several seasons (i.e., two terms). Like Martin, Gingrich is a master manipulator of talent and the press, a strategist par excellence who is always seeing three or four moves ahead of the opposition.

Like Martin, Newt has a healthy sense of paranoia and a narrative of personal struggle and vindication. Like Martin, Newt is averse to admitting mistakes – except when such admissions are politically advantageous – and always feels himself embattled and encircled by the establishment. Like Martin, Newt easily re-invents himself, from job to job, position to position, with his record of immediate success. Like Martin, Newt found himself accused of ethics violations that led to difficulties with his employers. Like Martin, Newt has had serial affairs, although Martin’s wives numbered four in total, one more than the nuptials of Newt.

As such, Newt presents such a clear contrast to Mitt Romney that it is no wonder they are so frequently at odds, and with such vehemence. Romney is almost preternaturally calm and composed, almost always unruffled, and very controlled and deliberate. Newt is the anti-Romney – frequently ruffled, often scruffy in appearance, and constantly agitated about something. Romney is focused on marketing (himself), whereas Newt appears almost uninterested in marketing, preferring the generation of excitement and exhilaration to the details of campaigning (like getting on the ballot in Virginia and Missouri). And Newt generated enthusiasm, similar to that of Ron Paul supporters but much more grounded in reality.

It is Newt’s volatility that endears him to so many – at least at first – and makes him such a compelling contrast to Barack Obama. He is always on the edge, always ready for a good scrum, always ready with a verbal and intellectual comeback to any challenge. There is no question Newt can’t answer, no policy matter he hasn’t thought through, and no confrontation that he will duck. Many salivate at the prospect of Newt debating Obama, which will not only be exciting television, but will so easily distress the thin-skinned Obama. Newt without a note is more articulate than Obama with three Teleprompters. So that would be fun.

But is that what the presidency is supposed to be ? Presidents are never called on to debate anything, so they are meaningless as a measure of presidential performance. And as indicia of presidential success they are even less significant. They are reality TV – in the case of Republicans, a good way for the electorate to familiarize itself with them, even as it seems they are locked in a circular firing squad. (Come next fall, no one will remember or care about anything said in a January debate, and the election will more turn on some as yet unknown factor.) Newt’s strength as a debater is critical to his nominating chances but ultimately inconsequential should he become the president.

Newt’s capacity as an idea-man makes his candidacy so intriguing. Bright thinkers can produce an idea per minute, but many of them half-baked, some dangerous, and still others immensely profound. The last professor type who occupied the White House was Woodrow Wilson, and his musings – on economic policy and foreign affairs – shape America until today, and in a largely negative way. It was Wilson who laid the foundation for the modern welfare state (that was later expanded by FDR and LBJ) and for the US’s role as the world’s policeman. Often, professors are not sensitive to the real-world effects, consequences, or reactions to their suggestions, and simply develop a new idea to replace the previous failure. Thought, like talk, is often cheap when one is in an inconsequential role in an ivory tower, but hazardous when the real world with its real people intrudes on the speculations.

Many of America’s problems are so intractable that only out-of-the-box solutions should be considered. The unfunded liabilities of all the government welfare programs – Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, and now Obamacare (may the Supreme Court overturn it) – run into the tens of trillions of dollars. America’s debt – now sixteen trillion dollars and growing (that’s $16,000,000,000,000.00) simply cannot be satisfied conventionally. Obama’s old idea of “tax the rich” – class warfare that depends for its success on two groups, the unintelligent and the recipient of handouts – is not only hackneyed and tired but also an obvious failure. Forget raising the rates on the rich: if Obama confiscated all the assets of every billionaire in the country, it would underwrite his budget for approximately two months – and then it would be gone, along with his class warfare argument.

Newt can make these arguments colorfully and compellingly. But will he flame out, as did Billy Martin again and again ? Will he offend his peers, co-workers and contemporaries even during the primary season ? He seems already to have inspired much opposition from Republicans with a personal animus towards him, an enmity that Romney never engenders even in his opponents.

A Newt Gingrich presidency would be a wild ride. He has already done an immense public service by pointing out the farce of the “peace process” and the vapidity of the Palestinian claims – the “invented people” remark from which he, to his credit, has not backtracked and has even reiterated.

If he is true to the Billy Martin form, Newt will win this election and then be booted out after one term. The difference – and this of course is critical – is that Martin had only one employer with a vote. Newt has to appeal to tens of millions of employers, who will either embrace or reject his voluble, out-sized personality.