The Fabulists

(First published at Israelnationalnews.com)

The Fabulists

By Rabbi Steven Pruzansky, Esq.

The era of the fabulists is upon us, those who possess an astonishing ability to assert alternate realities and spin fictional tales of accomplishment and conquest. It is hard to decipher what is happening around us. Is the cease fire real? The Straits of Hormuz are still not fully navigable despite President Trump’s assertion that it is the condition precedent for a cease fire. Can a cease fire last? Iran’s claims of victory recall – and how appropriate for this time of year? – the 3300 year old Merneptah Stele, in which Egypt’s Pharaoh, humiliated by the pain inflicted upon him by the G-d of Israel whose people were liberated from Egyptian bondage, recorded for posterity that “Israel is laid waste—its seed is no more.” Actually, it was Merneptah whose seed was no more.

It seems clear that everyone is lying. Trump’s words generally bear a purely incidental relationship to reality. Iran was able to call his bluff because the more outlandish his threats, the less likely he is to carry them out. His increasingly bellicose texts revealed frustration that the Iranians were not bowing to his bullying. But the American interest in this war – certainly legitimate but never identical to Israel’s interests – peaked with the low-risk bombing of multiple Iranian facilities that surely has hampered Iran’s pursuit of weapons of mass destruction but not ended it.

Iran, the evil, Jew-hating tyranny – an embarrassment to Islam – is devastated perhaps for years to come, despite its claims of victory. Its economy is shot, its proxies are scrambling to survive, it has antagonized its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, its weapons production facilities have been wrecked, and its reputation is in tatters. Despite the trillions of dollars it spent over many decades producing its deadly weapons, Iran can neither protect nor feed its own people. It survives on bluster and ruthlessness, its leaders hiding underground even as their henchmen continue to murder their own citizens.

Israel’s leaders paint the rosiest scenario and avow that the war will continue until all objectives are achieved. Indeed, despite the hatred-fueled denunciations of PM Netanyahu by the opposition parties here, much has been achieved. The threats of Hamas and Hezbollah have not been neutralized but they have been severely diminished, which is not to say that they cannot be reconstituted. Yair Lapid’s wild assertions that Israel’s strategic position in the world is “catastrophic” is classic fabulism. Even by the standards of election year rhetoric, it is beyond hallucinatory. But our enemies do persist and will not disappear anytime soon.

Two dangers loom. The first is the world’s (including the US) temptation to declare the Hamas and Hezbollah problems solved, Gaza to be rehabilitated even with Hamas present, Lebanon rebuilt with Hezbollah still active, and Israel to withdraw precipitously from Gaza and south Lebanon. One can already hear voices – across the world and on Israel’s delusional left – declaring that “now is the time to create a Palestinian state.” We would do well to adopt the Trump mantra of this week that “to the victor go the spoils” as well as to recall the follies of the past: “land for peace” cost us land conquered through the loss of Jewish lives and brought us not peace but a recurrence of aggression from the same places we surrendered.

The fabulists will try to tell us that “this time it will be different.” We should reject that as a non-starter, even at the risk of offending Witkoff, Kushner, and Qatar, as we should also reject a maintenance of the status quo. The lands we conquered should be settled with Jews. Our maps should be adjusted to reflect the new reality, otherwise we will just be repeating the same mistakes of the past.

Nations that allow their territory to be used as launching pads for attacks on Israel should lose that land in perpetuity. That is effective deterrence. No more, “sorry, we won’t do it again, at least not right away.” This will be Netanyahu’s real test, one that no amount of spin will allow him to dissemble and explain away. It is also the smart political move – in Israel, if not in DC or Paris.

The other danger is the US and the world community allowing Iran to retain effective control over the Straits of Hormuz, which seems in part to have happened already. The infusion of cash will buoy the Iranian economy and allow the Iranians to continue to sow trouble across the globe. The problem is that combatting this is not a primary interest of the US or Israel. Neither country uses Gulf oil. Sure, diminished access to the Straits will affect the world’s oil supply and ravage many economies if adjustments are not made. For example, the global price of oil is fixed and uniform and supply shortages in one place affect the price of oil everywhere. But why should that be, any more than there should be a fixed price for bananas or computer chips across the globe?

It is hard to see how Trump will risk American lives in order to reopen the Straits of Hormuz to oil tankers that do not benefit America. Nor should he; hence the empty bluster that led to Trump caving into a cease fire. The unspoken mystery here is where are the Gulf countries – the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, et al, countries that have literally spent hundreds of billions of dollars buying American arms? Why didn’t they bomb Iran, especially after Iran wantonly bombed them? Despite the protestations of Jew haters in America that the US went to war for Israel, notwithstanding that the bulk of the heavy fighting and weakening of Iran was done by Israel, in retrospect it would seem that the US did the bulk of its fighting for the Arab states of the Persian Gulf. Chew on that, Tucker Carlson, one of today’s leading fabulists. They should be using their military to open the Straits!

Other fabulists have been strangely silent in recent weeks. Those are the faux moralists who are quick to condemn Israel for alleged violations of the hoax known as international law, which seems to be a set of legal principles designed to ensure that the good guys can never win a war. (When I heard the other day that the Americans had a ready set of targets fully “vetted by lawyers,” I knew that a cease fire was imminent and victory a pipedream.) I remember when Israel was condemned decades ago for using cluster bombs in Lebanon. Yet, when Iran used them extensively against us in the last few weeks, crickets. Where are the international courts and human rights activists?

Even worse, isn’t it odd that we have heard nothing in the last six weeks about the civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio? By my rough count, Iran killed only Israeli civilians, and not a single fighter. Where are these phony numbers crunchers now? I was a good student in algebra, but I do not even need a calculator to determine that is a ratio of 100% civilians, 0% combatants, the worst in all of recorded history, and yet… crickets. It is a good reminder that we should stop playing that foolish, macabre game, dismiss the algebra aficionados with the contempt and disdain they deserve, and just win wars.

The coming months present Israelis with great opportunities. A resumption of hostilities with Iran involving American forces is increasingly unlikely. It is more likely that Trump will claim that Iran has surrendered and agreed to his demands even if such has not occurred. What we can do is ensure that Iran’s proxies do not survive, and that Iran is unable to hide behind proxies in the future. Proxy attacks on Israel should result in devastating attacks on Iran’s infrastructure. They should be held accountable for the belligerence of their agents as if they did it themselves. We are quite capable of defanging Hamas and Hezbollah – and if successful, Netanyahu will deserve all the accolades he will receive from fair-minded Israelis. If he does not succeed, well, then the last three years will be just the longest and deadliest of all the cycles of violence over which Netanyahu has presided during his long tenure, and that will be to his discredit.

Nevertheless, we should bear in mind one of the verities of Jewish history. Ultimate victory over all our foes is not ours, and true peace will await the coming of Messiah. On the banks of the Red Sea, Moshe told our ancestors 3338 years ago (Shemot 14:13) to “stand firm and see G-d’s salvation that He will do for you today, for as you have seen Egypt today, you shall not see them, ever again.”  But in fact, we have seen Egypt, many times since, from biblical times to the modern era. We have even fought them repeatedly. What then does the Torah mean?

One of the more recent biblical commentators, Umberto Cassuto, explained that we would never again see Egypt as invincible and intimidating, all-powerful, an empire so indestructible that we cowered before it and were too paralyzed even to confront them.

That, too, is an outcome of this war that – even now – affords us courage and confidence. The bogeyman of Iran – with its countdown to Israel’s destruction clock in the heart of Tehran, with its furious and revolting rhetoric of hate against Jews, with its goal of Israel’s extermination the very reason for its existence – that Iran has been humiliated and degraded, its leadership dead or discredited, struggling to remain in existence.

That is a divine blessing for which we should give thanks – and that harsh reality should confound even the greatest fabulists among them.

From Egypt to Jerusalem: Passover inspires hope and security

(First published in the Jerusalem Post)

https://www.jpost.com/opinion/article-890564

“Next year in Jerusalem” reflects centuries of faith, miracles, and God’s ongoing protection of the Jewish people.

The Haggadah mentions Yerushalayim only twice (aside from casual citations in traditional texts such as Hallel, Birkat Hamazon, and the bracha acharona). The second one is one of the most famous and stirring phrases in all of Jewish liturgy: the seder concludes with the prayer that sustained centuries of Jews living in adverse conditions often threatened by cruel enemies: “L’shana haba’a b’Yerushalayim” – Next Year in Jerusalem

Jews knew that no matter how they were being afflicted or persecuted, and no matter where they were, the dream of “Next Year in Jerusalem!” relieved any feelings of despair.

The first reference to Jerusalem is more enigmatic. In the middle of Magid – Telling the story of Exodus – where the sages expound the verses recited by he who brought his first fruits to the Holy Temple, it is said that “God brought us out of Egypt with a mighty hand and an outstretched arm…” a zero’a netuyah. 

The Midrash comments, “with an outstretched arm – this refers to the sword, as it is written (Divrei Hayamim 21:16), “[and David saw the angel of God standing between the heaven and the earth] holding a drawn sword in his hand stretched out (netuyah) over Yerushalayim.”

Surely this is an odd reference to Jerusalem! What is the significance of the angel’s sword stretched out over Jerusalem? And what really is the difference between “a mighty hand” and an “outstretched arm”?

Gods outstreched arm providing security or Jewish nation

Rav Joseph B. Soloveitchik explained that the “mighty hand” of God generated the miracles that liberated us from Egypt, but it is God’s “outstretched arm” that continues to provide security and guidance even after the miracles have passed.

That “outstretched arm” functions as a heavenly “Iron Dome” that shields us from the evil designs of our enemies, protects us from harm, and enables us to prosper under the wings of the divine presence.

That “outstretched arm” is visible in Jerusalem today. What was a provincial backwater under the Ottoman Empire after centuries of Muslim occupation – dwelling alone and forlorn, shorn of its beauty and majesty – is now (Baruch Hashem!) a thriving metropolis, spiritual center of the world, Israel’s eternal capital city, home to a million citizens, and an expanding, economic powerhouse. Nations and their ambassadors flock to Jerusalem, including those who wish to bask in its holiness and those who wish to trade with its high-tech sector.

Jerusalem’s spiritual, political, and material successes are all extensions of God’s “outstretched arm.” Torah is studied by myriads of people, mitzvot are observed by hundreds of thousands, and the city’s sanctity is palpable. Jerusalem is united, and despite the challenges to its exclusive Jewish sovereignty posed by such hostile elements as Turkey and Qatar, among others, few concepts unify the people of Israel more than the indivisibility of Jerusalem. 

There is so much building in Jerusalem that, as the joke goes, Israel’s national bird is the crane. And there is something enchanting about Passover in Jerusalem. Visitors come from all over the world – and some become inclined to stay.

It is not enough just to leave Egypt; after all, that was just the starting point of our history that would culminate in the Revelation at Sinai and our entry and conquest of the land of Israel, God’s chosen land. And the Haggadah cryptic reference to Jerusalem heralds that future.

The angel of God who held the “drawn sword stretched forth over Jerusalem” came not just to end the plague that afflicted the people but to inform David that the time had come to build the Holy Temple. It was then that David went to Ornan of Yevus in order to purchase the threshing floor that became the foundation of the Beit Hamikdash (Holy Temple).

This momentous event in Jewish history is embedded in the Haggadah, in the middle of Magid. God’s “mighty hand” liberated us from Egypt and His “outstretched arm” preserves until today, some 3338 years later. It affords us the faith and confidence that we will weather any storm – and combat any foe that dares to contest our rights to God’s holy city. That is the enduring spirit of Passover.

L’shana haba’a b’Yerushalayim!

The writer is Senior Research Associate at the Katz Jerusalem Center for Applied Policy (JCAP.ngo), Rabbi Emeritus of Congregation Bnai Yeshurun of Teaneck, New Jersey, and author of the book on Pesach, Road to Redemption (Kodesh Press).

Democracy Dies in Broad Daylight

(First published at Israelnationalnews.com)

Absent from any discussion on the future of Iran is democratization, and with good reason. Iran, from ancient times until today, has no history of democracy or even democratic aspirations. Some Iranians may yearn for freedoms as Westerners understand them but democracy as “rule of the people” is utterly foreign to them. It is also because democracy is increasingly difficult to sustain, as we are today experiencing in Israel.

The struggling Washington Post publishes on its masthead the self-serving but hopeful phrase “democracy dies in darkness.” Maybe, but in Israel where we always strive to do better, democracy is dying in broad daylight. Israel’s claim to be the “only democracy in the Middle East” has become increasingly farcical. Sure, Israel has elections, like Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, and Jordan have, but true power is not wielded by the elected officials but by an unelected power structure that barely tolerates the government, humors the legislature, runs roughshod over people’s individual rights, and is beyond accountability. Oh, and all the while accusing the government of being a “threat to democracy.” Talk about people who need to buy a mirror and take a gander at themselves.

Let us count the ways that the instruments of the deep state – the Supreme Court, the police and prosecution, and elements of the media – undermine democracy, especially because they cannot win elections. Sadly, this is only a partial list.

The police and prosecution eavesdropped on thousands of Israel citizens not accused of any wrongdoing, and without any court approval. They gathered and still retain personal information on many of them in the hope of finding something incriminating that the authorities could use to blackmail them into framing PM Netanyahu for something, anything. Nothing will come of this.

Attempts by the government to investigate these crimes have been thwarted by the Supreme Court, which is attempting to cover up its involvement and that of the “fired-but-still-reigning” Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara. She, in a remarkable exercise of judicial malfeasance, has been granted 23 adjournments in order to delay appointment of a committee to investigate the mass eavesdropping, thus delaying the case to the point of meaninglessness. In this and other areas, the AG and the Court are hoping to run out the clock past the next elections where they pray (if they pray at all) that a friendly left-wing government will sweep away all these charges. The Supreme Court has protected her from rightful termination for misconduct in office, even though no statute gives it the authority to do that.

The legal establishment has waged lawfare against the prime minister for well over a decade, with evidence fabricated, witnesses threatened, prosecutors suborning perjury, and the witch hunt dragging on for years. It has perfected the system of neutering disfavored politicians, appointees, or bureaucrats by holding over their heads bogus investigations facilitated by tendentious and false leaks to the media.

Meanwhile, the AG’s son was credibly accused (it is caught on camera, after all) of shamelessly stealing another soldier’s bullet proof vest, even refusing to return it after no charges were filed against him because of collusion between the AG and the Military Prosecutor’s office. Who knew that her self-proclaimed immunity extends to her son as well?

The former Military Prosecutor was credibly accused of fabricating evidence and leaking it to the media, a video that besmirched our soldiers’ names across the world. She was forced to resign after accidentally being outed by an employee undergoing a routine polygraph, but this only happened after the Military Prosecutor informed the Court that the results of her investigation did not expose the leaker. This was quite understandable, as she was the leaker, and was granted the right to investigate herself, which the Court willfully permitted until she was otherwise exposed. Her case is now pending, but (as above) it is pending its way towards quiet disappearance in the mischievous murkiness of the deep state.

The AG and the Supreme Court have asserted powers unknown to comparable officials in any functioning democracy. They fabricate their own laws and simultaneously void or thwart laws passed by the Knesset, Israel’s elected legislature, which has been successfully marginalized as a substantive branch of government. They operate under the risible legal theory spawned by Aharon Barak that “everything is justiciable,” something also unprecedented in legal annals. The AG and Court have arrogated themselves the right to pass judgment on every legislation, every policy, every initiative, and every appointment, even when they run afoul of no law but simply reflect the priorities of the government elected by the people.

Thus, the Court functions without any limits on standing, allowing every malcontent to sue the government even when he has suffered no personal injury but simply because he doesn’t like the government’s policies – for which they, not he, were elected to promote. Judges routinely ignore conflicts of interest, sitting on cases involving relatives and occasionally even cases in which they have monetary interests. Apparently, there is no equivalent in Hebrew for the English concept of “judicial restraint.”

For example, the law is explicit that the State Comptroller can investigate anything and everything. Nothing is beyond his purview. Yet, the High Court illegally ordered the State Comptroller to halt his investigation of the failures of October 7, because, apparently, they did not like where his investigation was heading. (He allegedly was finding fault with their preferred heroes and little fault with their designated villains.) But no existing statute justifies this Court decision.

Similarly, Ronen Bar, the failed head of the Shin Bet who ruled out any possibility of a Hamas attack on October 7, also refused to be fired. And when even the Court could not prevent his dismissal, his successor, David Zini, appointed by the only body authorized by law to appoint the head of the Shin Bet – the government – had numerous obstacles placed in his way, had his assumption to office delayed for months on the most specious grounds, has been politically, journalistically, and legally harassed since assuming office, and the denizens of the Deep State are actively seeking to depose him even now.

Indeed, every government appointment is scrutinized not for legal disqualification but for crass political purposes: will this person advance or impede the interests of the deep state? If the latter, the appointment will be delayed indefinitely, to the point of meaninglessness.

The same pertains to government decisions. Consider, for example, the government’s ordered closure of Galei Tzahal, the Army radio station, announced months ago to occur next week. Not too long ago, a conservative Galatz director balanced the left-wing hosts with an equal number of right-wing hosts. Had he fired the left-wing hosts, the court would have overturned his decision as a “threat to free speech.” When he was replaced, a new director dismissed all the right-wing hosts, who were deemed a “threat to democracy.” But Israel is the only country in the world whose army runs a radio station, much less a partisan, anti-government, and too frequently anti-army radio station. No law prevents the defense minister from shuttering the station; it is a branch of the military like any other branch. But the Supreme Court, acting in its role as High Court of the Deep State and defender of the radical left, has now estopped it, hoping to drag out the proceedings past the next elections and rendering the decision moot. Safe prediction: Galei Tzahal will not be closed anytime soon.

Just as the Court insists that the government subsidize the left wing Galei Tzahal, it is even more undemocratic, if not unconscionable, that the public pays for Reshet Bet, a leftist radio station. Israel TV’s flagship Channel 12 is also government subsidized, and its leftist news division is relentlessly anti-government. Any attempt to reform it by balancing its commentators between right and left, or by letting it privatize and compete in the free market with other networks, is aborted as a “threat to free speech” and a “threat to democracy.” Even the non-astute citizen can grasp that any endeavor that weakens the leftist, secularist segment of society and strengthens the rightist, traditional segment of society, is immediately depicted as a “threat to free speech and democracy.”

To be sure, even a left-wing media has its place. But that place need not be eternally subsidized by the taxpayer, especially those who find its offerings and commentary repugnant. The government should get out of the media business, period. It should be obvious that these left-wing, government-subsidized outlets could not survive if they were forced to compete in the marketplace; that is why the Deep State protects them like an etrog. Forcing taxpayers to subsidize only leftist media is a travesty.

Similarly, two years ago, the Government cut off all ties with the radical left newspaper Haaretz and even ordered the cessation of its subsidized distribution to various government ministries. This is understandable, considering that its publisher has called Arab terrorists “freedom fighters” and one of its columnists recently termed the State of Israel “the greatest danger to world peace of any country.” (If all Tucker Carlson did every day was read the lies from Haaretz, he would not have to concoct his own lies.) Haaretz is one of the most anti-Israel, anti-Jewish publications in the world. Naturally, the Court ordered the Government to resume its subsidies.

This has nothing to do with free speech. Not a few public officials call for the closure of privately funded, right-wing Channel 14. Those who think that cannot happen should recall the closure of Arutz-7, the first popular right-wing organ. Those who think that the expulsion of Jews from Judea and Samaria by a leftwing government is impossible should recall Gush Katif. Those who think that the left does not still pine for a Palestinian state should recall the delusions of Oslo that are all alive and well in the febrile minds of the unrepentant dreamers of a secular, progressive, state of all its citizens, non-Jewish Israel. It is delusional to think that the Hamas invasion or the wars with Iran and Hezbollah has disabused the radical left of its fantasies are starry-eyed as it is to think that the legal establishment that investigates itself and mysteriously never finds any wrongdoing will ultimately be brought to justice.

Elections have been rendered meaningless as real power is held by the courts and unelected bureaucrats who cannot be fired or replaced without permission of the elites. The only virtue of elections is that it enables a right-wing government to be a partial brake on the excesses of the Court, the exact opposite of how a democracy is supposed to function. A left-wing government buttressed by a left-wing Court would be catastrophic, an unchecked behemoth that will undoubtedly oppress right wing and religious Jews who will lack any recourse.

It goes on and on. The AG wants to cancel Itamar Ben Gvir – an act devoid of merit, legal precedent, or statutory authority. Surely, the Election Commission will find some way to ban him in the future. The Court is compelling the IDF to integrate women in combat into mixed units, which will inevitably result in yeshiva students refusing to serve in the tank or artillery corps, a suicidal triumph of rigid, radical feminist ideology over Halacha, efficiency, and battlefield success. The Court demanded years ago that Gazans be allowed to approach the border unhindered and unchallenged, itself one of the proximate causes of the colossal failure of October 7, and one which will also be covered up. And not content with its domestic and military interventions, the Court has ordered that mixed prayers be allowed at a sub-divided Kotel, a mockery of Jewish law and all that is holy. If they feel so strongly about it, maybe the Court should order the same at Al-Aksa.

And do not be surprised if the Deep State cooks up a way to disqualify PM Netanyahu from running in the next election, on some pretext, with the goal of so dispiriting the right wing that people see no purpose in voting, the only way the left can win in Israel. By the time it happens, it will be too late to respond, and the elites know whatever turmoil erupts will die down as soon as a left-wing government is in place.

The problem is that currently there is little hope of changing the system regardless of who is elected in the fall. The elites have carved out for themselves an infrastructure of power that is impregnable through ordinary democratic processes, short of a revolution. The judges cannot be impeached, essentially appoint their replacements, they shield corrupt bureaucrats who serve their purposes and harass honest ones who do not. There are no checks or balances on them. And in a fashion quite evocative of North Korea, the most undemocratic party in Israel – the one that aspires to deprive most of the citizenry of basic rights – calls itself the Democrats. It has no faith in the demos – the people who actually vote – but only in the crats, the ruling class.

Eventually, there will be a constitutional crisis, in which the government and the people who elected it – the majority of the country – simply refuse to enforce the Court’s arbitrary dictates or the AG’s capricious predilections. In a real sense, that crisis is already upon us, obscured only by the necessities of an existential war.

We should not be concerned with democracy in Iran, a pipedream even for optimists. We should be more concerned about the fate of democracy in Israel, dying a daily slow death before our eyes, in broad daylight. And we should pray for the day when “Zion shall be redeemed with justice, and her repentant ones with righteousness” (Yeshayahu 1: 27), may that day come soon.

Iran Away

(First published at Israelnationalnews.com)

We could be on the brink of a profound historic change in the Middle East that will set it on the path to peace, prosperity, goodwill, harmony, tolerance, and mutual respect for all countries. Or not.

The unprecedented cooperation between the United States and Israel – a melding of the militaries, to a great extent – reflects several positive developments. It is an achievement for both President Trump and PM Netanyahu, two leaders routinely vilified by large segments of their population and the world, who both perceived threats to their countries and rather than just shrilly warn against it and make idle threats, acted in a bold and audacious way. We can even forgive Trump’s claim of credit for killing the Ayatollah, notwithstanding there weren’t US planes over Iran at the time of that initial attack. Such is the way of the showman.

It also should not be overlooked how these two leaders unflinchingly defined evil as evil and went to war against it. This is not to be taken for granted in a world where evildoers wage psychological and propaganda warfare in order to blur the distinction between good and evil, if not to declare such notions completely obsolete. The obliteration of the distinction between objective good and objective evil plagues Western and secular society and is one of the catalysts for the unrest on college campuses and the moral muddle that afflicts so many young people.

This collaboration ultimately reflects the commitments of both nations and their citizenry to a world that is ordered on moral grounds as well as to a repudiation of the Jew hatred that is gaining strength in the United States and animates so many people in this region.

Nevertheless, fighting side by side should not obscure the fact that each nation went to war for different though equally valid reasons. As such, it is likely that the United States will want to end the war sooner than will Israel.

Israel embarked on this campaign as a classic war of self-defense. The threat from Iran was not “imminent,” but rather constant. Israel has been in a continuous state of war with Iran since the early 1980’s with the creation of Hezbollah. Iran, through its various proxies in the region and their tentacles across the world, has been plotting Israel’s demise since then, murdering Jews and Israelis wherever we may be found. A state does not have immunity because it masks its malevolent actions behind the subordinates it funds, trains, and dispatches. The unremitting menace of Iran had to be confronted; it took decades of terror but finally the battle was joined.

The United States went to battle against Iran not because it perceived an imminent threat, even though Iran has engaged in terror against the US since 1979 – kidnappings, murders, assassination plots against American leaders and politicians, etc. The US war with Iran is a classic preventative war, a war meant to be fought on terms favorable to the attacker to ward off a genuine and tangible future menace. Forty-seven years of chanting “Death to America” eventually, from Iran’s perspective, reached the wrong audience (i.e., President Trump), who took those threats and Iran’s nuclear and ballistic weapons program seriously. Iran has paid and continues to pay a heavy price for that verbal indiscretion and its malign designs against civilization. Its new leader may also be supreme, which does not necessarily mean durable.

Both grounds for initiating an aggressive attack – a present threat with actual hostilities or a preventative war – are inherently moral and legitimate but engender two different objectives. The US is interested in destroying or at least impeding the Iranian program for the foreseeable future, thus removing even a longer-term threat from America’s horizon. That is one reason regime change in Iran is desired by the US but is not indispensable to its mission.

For Israel, regime change – a shift to an Iranian government that may not be enthusiastic Zionists but at least does not consist of obsessive Jew haters and fanatical mass murderers – is a primary goal of the war. It pays to recall that Iran’s deposed Shah was friendly to Israel relative to the region, but not overly warm. Relations on the surface were cordial but the Shah rarely deviated from the Arab consensus at the time. He sold oil to Israel but also had ties with the PLO, condemned the Israeli “occupation,” and called repeatedly for full withdrawal. Like Turkey, another non-Arab but Muslim state that had ties with Israel but not necessarily warm ones, Iran under the Shah had relations with Israel that were benign only in comparison to those of the psychopaths that overthrew him.

The Shah’s son and putative heir is certainly friendlier to Israel but we should not overestimate his standing or popularity in Iran. Again, the few who remember his father’s autocracy favorably do so only when compared to the horrors and monsters that followed him.

This bespeaks the current dilemma facing Israel and the United States. The second reason why regime change is not indispensable to the US military mission is because regime change cannot be effectuated by a foreign army, certainly not from aerial bombings alone, and not from an army of thousands trying to impose its will on a nation of 91,000,000 people – not all of whom are amenable to change.

The conventional wisdom in the West is that Iranians overwhelmingly reject the rule of the Ayatollahs and their monomaniacal, virulent interpretation of Islam. The vast majority of Iranians, we are told, yearn to be free of the rule of the mullahs would like nothing better than a secular Iran within a Muslim framework, such as existed under the Shah’s rule, the better to pursue a good material life. Polls, apparently, show that rule by the mullahs is supported by perhaps 10% of the population, which is not that much, even if in raw numbers it is larger than the population of Israel.

And what if the polls are wrong? What if it is not 10% of the population but 20% or 30% – in other words, tens of millions of fanatics, and that percentage – granted, a minority – is still the only portion of the population that is armed? Under that scenario, regime change becomes less and less likely.

Assuming that 30,000 protesting Iranians were murdered by the regime in the last few months, and myriads more arrested, and many not arrested, that means that barely .001% of the population took to the streets. That is a sobering figure. Policy should not be based on projection – how would we feel if we lived under such a tyranny? – but on reality. A true mass movement of Iranians to overthrow the regime and restore some sort of normalcy has not yet materialized, perhaps because it presently can’t, or perhaps because it does not exist. We can wish for its existence but we cannot wish such an opposition into existence.

The allure of radical Islam should not be underestimated as it has taken root in much of the world and threatens much of the rest. Iran and Turkey have fallen under its sway but each Arab country – even moderate ones – must try to suppress the radicals who live among them, and they do so with varying degrees of success. Europe is overrun with radical Muslims, including large sections of Britain, France, Belgium, Germany, and elsewhere. And radical Islam is a growing menace in the United States as well, even when the face of it has a pleasant smile. Note that the extremists – several of whom sit in the US Congress – are mostly able to preclude any responsible discussion of its dangers by accusing all skeptics and challengers of Islamophobia.

The entire world view of the radical Muslim is permeated with the imperative to propagate Islam even at the cost of one’s own life. It thus becomes difficult to see how this regime – and whoever survives to lead it – can surrender. Even the Nazis surrendered when their ideology collapsed and Germany was overrun. Do the Iranians have a Gorbachev who oversaw the demise of the Soviet Union rather than annihilate his own people? The opposite seems to be the case. Mass murder of their own civilians – not to mention of the infidels across the globe – is the price they joyfully pay to spread their understanding of their faith.

In this, the Iranian leadership is more akin to Imperial Japan, which would not have surrendered to end World War II absent the US atomic bombs that destroyed two major cities with the threat (hollow, as it was) of more to come. Japan would have fought to the last man, a volatile combination of religion and nationalism.

For Israel, regime change is an obvious desideratum, because the survival of this regime in any form will only make it more extreme, if such a thing is possible. For the US, regime change will require a greater commitment of troops and resources than even the Trump administration is willing to provide. What then lies ahead?

As Yogi Berra said, it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. It is more likely that the regime will somehow survive than that Reza Pahlavi will show up one day and be crowned the new Shah. But the most optimistic yet still realistic scenario envisions someone from the military – not the Revolutionary Guards – seizing power and quashing the radical mullah movement. This doesn’t transform Iran into a Western democracy but it might enable its decent citizens to remodel their country into an exporter of oil and spices and not terror. The fear that any new radical leader will be decapitated should be a deterrent to normal human beings but might not be applicable in the context of radical Islam. Nonetheless, the present is thus an opportune time for such a military leader to assert authority, especially as the Iranian military will otherwise be totally devastated.

Until that happens, Israel should destroy as much of the Iranian infrastructure as possible, including the oil installations, despite American objections. A poor, weak, and bankrupt Iran poses a limited threat in the short term, and such would also starve its proxies of the funding and support they require to wage their relentless war against Israel. We should be calling every day for the professional military – those not beholden to radical Islam – to step forward and save Iran from devastation.

We should also realize that even the complete defeat of Iran – including regime change and the opening of a Chabad House in Tehran – does not mean an end to Israel’s enemies. New foes are already on the horizon – Turkey, Qatar – just as the possibility of new alliances with other Arab nations exists as well. Then again, a defanged Iran could also mean that those Arab nations that drew close to us because they feared Iran will have less incentive to ally with Israel. Who knows?

The book of Shoftim (Judges) states several times after our enemies were temporarily defeated “and the land was quiet,” for forty years, even for eighty years. If only! In every generation we can weaken Amalek but full victory awaits the coming of Messiah. That is encouraging – along with a more sensible leadership that, one hopes, has purged itself from failed conceptziyot, a military whose feats with G-d’s help astound the world, and a resilient and brave civilian population that cannot be cowered and intimidated by wicked enemies but grows ever stronger and more faithful with each new challenge.