Category Archives: Current Events

It is not often that an election is held with results that lead every party to claim victory, but such is the convoluted nature of the Israeli political system. The winners look dejected, losers exult, and parties with very similar outcomes react in completely opposite ways. So with the results still not final but roughly known, who are the winners and losers in this round?
Big Loser: The Haredi parties. Yahadut HaTorah, the Agudist Party, never seems to break through a barrier that leaves it at 5-7 seats, despite the much ballyhooed increase in the Haredi population. Their stagnation must be attributable to either a low turnout or the tantalizing possibility that Haredim are voting for other parties. So, how then can they be the big loser if their mandates have remained the same or have slightly increased? Because the country has shifted to a culture which does not tolerate – and will not long support – a lifestyle that eschews both national service (military or civil) and gainful employment. Every other party has uniformly embraced shivyon banetel – a co-equal sharing of national burdens – as a fundamental plank in its platform, both for practical and moral reasons. Because of the likely composition of the next coalition, the days are rapidly dwindling wherein public money will be designated for parochial interests that involve no acceptance of shared burdens. Perhaps much of the Haredi public recognizes that fact and voted accordingly.
Shas, the Sefaradi Haredi party, retained its strength, but, like Yahadut HaTorah, is confronting for the first time a situation in which a government can plausibly be formed without them. They will both pull whatever strings necessary to find their way into the governing coalition, as support for their institutions and their concomitant patronage power depend on it, but their leverage is diminished and so their demands will have to be scaled down as well.
The riots that accompanied Election Day in some Haredi centers, spearheaded by Satmar and calling on people not to vote and to disconnect from the government, bears some irony and even some intellectual disconnect: to withdraw from society means to reject the government largesse that sustains the Haredi world. Come again?
Loser: Likud. In fairness, it is hard to characterize the winning party as a “loser,” but that conclusion is inescapable. The merger with Yisrael Beteinu was a fiasco from the outset, so preposterous (it turned off voters on each party’s margin that simply would not vote for the other) that it is hard to believe that anyone thought it productive. Likud effectively lost almost 25% of its strength, and even though it will likely form the next government, its policies will bear no resemblance to what the traditional Likud voter espouses and if it turns leftward will alienate at least a third of the current formation.
For a moment, it must have crossed PM Netanyahu’s mind that two parties – Yesh Atid and Labor – could easily unite for the purposes of forming a coalition and present themselves to the President as the largest grouping. Perhaps that is why Netanyahu reached out so quickly to Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid.
Likud also hurt itself by the relentless negativity it directed against Bayit Hayehudi, which it clearly perceived as its main rival for votes. Rather than indulge the pejoratives, those voters moved elsewhere (Yesh Atid?) leaving Netanyahu with a weakened right flank, assuming he wanted one. It was a bad campaign from its inception, and the errors were compounded by shoddy tactics.
Loser: Zippi Livni. Her party was formed so precipitously that it even lacked a name, but it certainly lacked an identity. She is unlikely to be part of any governing coalition and will sit in opposition with her small party. So why is she a “big loser”? Because Israel has a habit of recycling electoral failures after a few years, and at least she will remain active –and especially popular on the leftist “blame Israel for no peace” circuit.
Big Loser: Peaceniks. The so-called “peace process” played almost no role in this election, even though the media continued to use as its measure of seriousness support for a “two-state” solution. Perhaps they haven’t heard, but in most of Israel that is a measure of foolishness and a flight from reality rather than seriousness. For the first time, an Israeli politician deigned to tell the truth to the public. Naftali Bennett of Bayit Hayehudi said what most sane, grounded people know: peace is not coming in this generation, so Israel has to remain strong and focus on building its society. And that endeavor – strengthening Israeli society, keeping its economy robust and growing its work force – were the primary issues in the campaign. Barack Obama can be included as a “loser” in this process as well, as very few parties spoke of the diplomatic future with any enthusiasm. Of course, Netanyahu is unpredictable, so anything can change especially with the Iranian bomb looming, but those changes will be difficult and independent of the election results.
Big Winner: Yair Lapid and the Yesh Atid (“there is a future”) party. Lapid brought his winning TV personality to the campaign, along with some of the insipid media-popular clichés (of course “there is a future;” but what does that mean?). Israel has always been blessed with the rise of third-parties that burst onto the scene and then disappear within an election cycle or two (Yadin’s Democratic Movement for Change, Mordechai’s Center Party, and now Kadima). But Lapid didn’t only bring a fresh face to politics but a fresh approach – confronting issues rather than avoiding them, offering solutions (where possible) rather than platitudes (OK, some platitudes, too) but especially by challenging the Haredim rather than demonizing them. His own late father Tommy was a noted basher of Haredim and Torah, but the son – also secular – has taken a more mature approach. I heard a speech he gave last year – to Haredim¬ – in which he said, in effect: “You won. We thought Torah would have no future. We were wrong. Now that you won, you also have to take responsibility for Israeli society. You are not marginal players anymore. Secular Israel needs you to give it a Jewish identity, and for you to play a full role running, supporting and defending the society.”
It is hard to argue with his logic, even if some (not me) question his sincerity, and it was after that speech that shivyon banetel became a clarion call in society. I have not yet heard a good Haredi response to his call. And Yesh Atid includes as its number two a Religious Zionist rabbi, and lower on its list but still entering the Knesset, a “Haredi” activist from Ramat Bet Shemesh who challenged the Haredi excesses that galvanized the public more than a year ago.
Big winner: Israeli society. The society wins not because of the results but because of the maturation of the electoral system. There was not one major party that did not include at least one kippa-wearing Jew, and some had several – not as tokens but because the Torah should be part of every Israeli political party and its values should infuse the whole system. That is not to say that we can do away with overt religious political parties – perhaps someday – but rather that the makeup of the slates reflects the increased and natural role that religious Jews play in Israeli life. Similarly, the fact that all parties outside the Haredi ones have secular Jews on their lists as well also bodes well for a cohesive society.
Winner: Habayit Hayehudi. They would have been big winners but for the sleazy campaign run against them, which included – for several weeks running – the release of disparaging material about its candidates to the media on Friday night, so the party could not respond for 24 hours until after Shabbat and thereby allowing the smears to seep through the media and public unchallenged. Ultimately, Netanyahu suffered for these calumnies, and will suffer in the future.
Nonetheless, Habayit Hayehudi added to its Knesset strength, energized the Religious Zionist public and will be a force for years to come, especially if it counters the negative image thrust upon it by the Likud with solid legislative work and substantive contributions to the public debate. No longer concerned with purely sectoral issues, and no longer interested in being the mashgichim in a restaurant owned and managed by others, Naftali Bennett emerged as the voice of the future – instilling Torah values into all aspects of society.

The final results could change somewhat in the coming days but certain conclusions are inescapable. Netanyahu miscalculated as a candidate, as he miscalculated when he indulged the two-state fantasy, the settlement freeze and the removal of outposts, in the process alienating his core supporters. His tenure as prime minister will be less stable than was this term.
And there is good news and bad news. The bad news is that the electoral totals between the parties have narrowed so much that new elections are a distinct possibility within 2-3 years. The good news is new faces bring new ideas and increased enthusiasm, and the peace processors should remain dormant for some time. Both of those factors should enable the nation to focus on bridging the gaps between religious and secular, and enabling all sectors of society to contribute to the glory of the Jewish state and the Jewish people.

     One would think that the nomination of Chuck Hagel to be the next US Secretary of Defense would have caused Jews, and Americans’ comfortable with the projection of American power across the globe, some cause for concern, and for Jews, a reassessment of their voting patterns. Not so fast.

     Obama opponents are not surprised, Obama acolytes are unperturbed, but the most interesting reaction came from a well-known ADL voice who opined to the Wall Street Journal that he does not understand how President Obama could choose someone “who policies are so out-of-sync with his own,” or something of that sort. Funny how the obvious answer – that Obama chose someone whose policies are quite in sync with his own (all election rhetoric to the contrary notwithstanding) never occurred to this commentator.

    Indeed, both the Hagel nomination for the Pentagon and the John Kerry nomination to head the State Department are ominous but not unforeseen. (This space anticipated a Kerry nomination back in October.) And that is not because of the unfortunate statements that Hagel has made over the years about Jews and Israel, nor because of Hagel’s astonishingly insensitive defense of his Israel record: “I have voted to give Israel about $35B over the years,” as if to say, you know, that’s all the Jews want anyway, money.

    We should not bandy about the phrase “Jew-hater” too wantonly; it is a hideous accusation today, akin to being called a “racist.” The accusation is the indictment, and punishment comes forthwith. In fact, there is a limit as to how anti-Jewish any American politician can be, whatever their private beliefs, and such accusations here are unwarranted and undeserving. Nor does “money” play a role in ascertaining one’s support or antagonism for Israel; Rand Paul is charged with being unsympathetic to Israel because he opposes foreign aid on the grounds that it makes little sense for America to borrow money from China to give to Israel, or any other country. That sounds like a reasonable proposition to me, but for the simple fact that America’s military aid to Israel is largely spent in the United States (approximately 70% of it) and so amounts to a US subsidy to the US arms industry. So one can be pro-Israel and oppose military assistance, or be anti-Israel and support military assistance. In any event, Congressional support for Israel is so bi-partisan and widespread that changes in aid are unlikely in the near future no matter who heads the Pentagon or the State Department.

     The Hagel problem boils down to a set of values and policies that will reduce the American profile in the world – something that can only cause the anti-American evildoers to rejoice. (Indeed, the Hagel nomination was greeted in Teheran with dancing in the streets; sometimes, an enemy’s visceral reaction is more indicative of the true nature of events than any spin politicians and talking heads can put on the matter. There is no Hagel thesis-antithesis-synthesis ahead: he, like Obama, is at core an isolationist who is not at all proud of the role American has played in the world. That is not say that Hagel will embark on his own international apology tour as Obama did, or that Hagel will be caught bowing to the Saudi king. It is that bad things happen in the world – instability festers, problems linger until they explode – when the United States is in retreat.

     Israel is worried, because they assume that a Hagel as head of Defense means that the United States will never attack Iran, nor necessarily cooperate with Israel if Israel wishes to attack unilaterally. The sharing of intelligence will be muted; since that is mutual, that can affect US intelligence in the Middle East as well. The nightmare scenario of a nuclear armed Iran –and what that means for Israel and for the United States – is that much closer. A nuclear Iran will dominate the Persian Gulf destabilize the flow and the price of oil. In effect, Iran will play a more dominant role in the American economy, especially given Obama’s opposition to oil-drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and the Keystone pipeline. Rather than make America energy-independent – a distinct and realistic possibility within a decade – Obama is leaving the US at the mercy of Iran and prefers reliance on the sun and the wind. No wonder Iranians are dancing in the streets; Hagel has even long opposed sanctions against Iran.

     Much has been made – too much – of Hagel’s distinguished service in Vietnam, and all Americans honor that service. But service in the military qualifies one to head the Pentagon and formulate strategic doctrine as much as being a welfare recipient qualifies that person to head the Department of Health and Human Services. Patriotism is an admirable characteristic, but not necessarily a “qualification” for any particular job. As a Senator, Chuck Hagel was wrong more often than right – especially in his contemptuous dismissal of the Bush surge – the “worst mistake since Vietnam” – which, in fact, snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. (Granted, it was a victory since squandered by the current administration.)

     Hagel is a problem, but John Kerry might prove to be an even bigger problem. Jews are always made a little nervous by people who deny or assert unawareness about their Jewishness. As is well known, Kerry’s grandfather immigrated to the United States, changed his name from Kohn to Kerry, converted, and passed himself off as an Irish Catholic until he allegedly met a tragic end. At times, Jewish roots inspire pride and further investigation into one’s heritage; other times, Jewish roots are perceived as painful and threatening, and induce an unconsciousness desire to suppress those memories and renounce those roots.

    But Kerry’s Jewish connection is not as troublesome as are his politics. It was just a few years ago that he described himself as a “good friend” of Basher al-Assad, the current butcher of Damascus. Assuming that Assad did not just in the last year transform himself into a monster, what sort of “friendship” was that? Indeed, while the personal relationship is probably exaggerated, the policy conclusions are not: Kerry believes in the stability wrought by dictators whom he thinks can be won over as American allies. That particular prescription has been fools’ gold for almost a century, and certainly – in the Arab world – in the last half-century; the United States has benefited little from those attempts.

    Essentially, the Arab world provides the US almost nothing but oil. But for oil, there would be no talk, or need to talk, of an “alliance.” Those “alliances” have always been unpredictable anyway, and such relationships have proved hazardous to Americans and US interests time and again. Dependency on despots is never salubrious. It should trouble Americans, therefore, the Obama administration has chosen energy dependence over independence, and chosen to align itself with the Muslim world – Turkey, Egypt, et al – and in the process completely ignoring the anti-American shifts that have occurred in those countries. The Kerry/Hagel dialectic will only hasten the reorientation of US foreign policy. That is not only bad for Israel and bad for the world, it is bad for America as well.

     Such are the consequences of elections, my fellow Jews. The spin being spun is that there is more to being pro-Israel than supporting Likud policies down the line. All true – but the Israeli political party must attuned to the Obama administration in its current drift and future trends is not Likud or Labor or even Kadima which is moving Achora so quickly it will soon be defunct; rather, Obama’s foreign policy is more closely aligned today with the Balad Party of Haneen Zoabi – who is also not worried about an Iranian bomb, who also favors a two-state solution (although she might mean two Arab states), and who is obviously pro-Muslim.

     As Chuck Hagel said quite forcefully several years ago, he is not the “Senator from Israel but a United States Senator.” Whatever his personal feelings towards Israel, his policies reveal that he clearly has never valued the US-Israel relationship as much as most of his colleagues do and as the American people and most prior administrations have. Assertively pro-Israel Democrats – like Chuck Schumer, for example – know the score and the problem and the spin, and are surely being tested now, including wrestling with this conundrum: the Kerry/Hagel approach is very much in sync with that of the President they enthusiastically endorsed, not at all a departure from it, and not good for Israel or the United States. As if the disregard of America’s spiraling deficit was not enough, you got what you voted for.

      Now what?

 (The above are my thoughts alone. Any similarity to the thoughts of other people, groups or institutions – real or imagined, living or dead – is purely coincidental.)