Author Archives: Rabbi

Moral Decline

       Rutgers, a New Jersey State college, has joined the parade of moral dysfunction by approving what they term “gender-neutral” dorm rooms. In other words, students who feel “uncomfortable” living with roommates of the same sex can request roommates of the opposite sex. Ostensibly, this is designed to make homosexual students (or those of other alternative and atypical interests) more contented with their living arrangements so as to pre-empt tragedies such as last year’s suicide of an outed homosexual by his disapproving roommate. How this will prevent others from being similarly outed is a mystery, especially when they realize they are exposing themselves through the request itself. It is not uncommon for homosexuals to be persecuted by other homosexuals, struggling with their tendencies.

     This being a society that strives for fairness and equity in all spheres, Rutgers is unable to limit these options to the target group but must extend them to all. Thus, this gem (reported by Time.com): “In a titillating perk for heterosexual students, the ability to request an opposite-sex roommate is open to any student; Rutgers has no plans to ask about the sexual preferences of the person requesting a roommate or about the nature of the roommate relationship.   Parents unhappy with such an unorthodox dorm-room living situation are pretty much out of luck since housing contracts are signed by students. “We won’t be talking to parents about this,” says (Joan) Carbone (Rutgers’ executive director of residence life).”

    Well, such an arrangement certainly enables the male to avoid the tedium, expense and occasional painful rebuffs of the dating world – of actually courting a woman in a romantic sense, as opposed to merely perceiving her as an instrument of gratification of his physical needs. With this new arrangement, already found in several schools (including my alma mater, Columbia), the would-be Lothario has a paramour in hand, assuming she is willing and interested. And, if she is not, there is always the possibility of getting a new, more accommodating roommate.

     Undoubtedly, this setup will appeal to two groups in the heterosexual world: males with an inflated sense of their charms (an enormous number) and females with a pronounced inferiority complex and lack of self-esteem (I trust a much smaller number). Indeed, no self-respecting girl should ever embrace such an arrangement, and couples already living in an informal relationship would do well to focus on their studies and not live together in a faux marriage that is unlikely to endure but most likely to hamper their pursuit of knowledge and a career. But is that really what today’s college experience promises ?

     Now, some might argue that it is possible for a man and woman to live together platonically, as friends and roommates but not lovers. Count me as old-fashioned. I am sure it is “possible,” but is it probable ? Is it even desirable ? There is something quite sad about the death of desire that is surely attributable to the casual flings and hookups that characterize the social lives of the young, the heightened sexuality of modern culture that robs the young of their youth and innocence, and the pervasiveness of promiscuity and immorality. To have young men and women capable of interacting without any sexual tension between them – without any flirtation or romantic interest – is depressing. It is no wonder that most men express frustration and disappointment in that realm, and seek experiences outside the framework of marriages and family. By the time they get married – in their 30’s, according to the most recent statistics – they have seen it all and done it all. There is nothing really that special about the wedding or the marriage, and no compelling reason why the latter should endure. So, it doesn’t, or leaves both parties aching for fulfillment of their real goals in life and their dreams of (how is this for old-fashioned?) love.

        The misery of modern romance perhaps explains another gloomy statistic. The World Health Organization recently reported that Americans are the Western world’s biggest drug users. More than 16% of Americans have used cocaine (the closest country in the same study was New Zealand, at a little over 4% – and they’re at the end of the world!), and a whopping 42% have used marijuana. It is no wonder; life itself – the joys of spouses, families, conjugal pleasures, faith and friends – holds little long-term and persistent attraction. The “highs” can only be obtained artificially, and not in the real world. Furthermore, the array of lifestyle choices that is presented as “normal” has left many young people frustrated and sexually confused about something that should be natural and innate. Both the traumas of youth (that undoubtedly plays a role in their personal bewilderment) and the angst of adolescence are washed away through drink or drugs, but of course do not resolve the underlying issues that fester and eat away at their core.

      The modern university is not a citadel of ideas but a laboratory of social and sexual experimentation, a moral cesspool in which traditional values are mocked and traditional people are ill-at-ease. The Torah, which in any one chapter offers greater insight into human nature than one will find in any tome studied in university or in any of the tenured geniuses who teach there, recognizes the instinctual drives that shape the personality and therefore present the greatest moral challenge in life, but something else as well: to give free license to one’s instinctual nature does not deepen our enjoyment of physical pleasure but diminishes it – even deadens it.

       Thus have we become so desensitized to male-female pleasure that educators at distinguished universities can be so clueless as to the consequences of opposite-sex roommates. Thus have we been inundated with the necessity of mainstreaming homosexuality into our moral universe that those in charge of our children’s “residence life” on campus – for which the parents footing the bill may not be consulted – play matchmaker in a puzzle of ill-fitting parts.

    It should certainly make any parent think three or four times about the perils of secular college, which in one month can undo the effects of fifteen years (at an expense of hundreds of thousands of dollars) of yeshiva education. The yetzer hara (the part of man that pursues instinctual pleasure) is wily enough even when properly restrained; it is simply uncontrollable when the illicit is given free rein and provided the imprimatur of virtue and self-actualization. That is the death of any moral aspirations, as well as a certain way to deprive the participant of the capacity to experience any real pleasure. It also does not really enhance, or fulfill the essential purpose, of attending college.

     Perhaps those who wish to “take back” America can set these as worthwhile objectives, in addition to getting government off our backs and out of our pockets:  to end America’s dependence on narcotics, alcohol and other stimulants as the mediums of “pleasure,” to reclaim modesty, chastity and purity as educational goals and not merely as preachers’ tools, and to shun the purveyors of debauchery that has insidiously raided our homes and hearts and left many without the ability to feel, or even to recognize decadence for what it is.

     Indeed, the most troubling aspect of this policy is that its progenitors perceive it as enlightened instead of perverse. If that is so, then the decline of the American university is probably unstoppable, and new sources of moral instruction and scholastic enlightenment are needed for America to regain its path. The news that Brigham Young University has suspended its star basketball  player on the eve of the NCAA tournament for violating the school’s honor code (how delightfully quaint is that term!) by having pre-marital sex with his girlfriend underscores the magnitude of religion-based education as the only vehicle for inculcating a morality that transcends fads, trends and rationalizations. (The player was contrite in his apology to his teammates, something else unimaginable in a secular setting where the player would have been lauded for his personal choices and sued for reinstatement.)

      A secular university not only won’t foster traditional morality, but simply can’t. It is essentially incapable of speaking that language; hence the constant lowering of the moral bar to appeal to people’s baser and more tawdry instincts, and the popular “rating” of universities for their partying and drinking. As the BYU football coach explained this week, sort of: “I don’t know that those not inclined to understand, will ever understand.” Indeed.

Heroes

     In August 1995, while riding in a car and listening live to Bob Costas’ eulogy of Mickey Mantle, my wife commented in her innocence: “I don’t understand. Why did people idolize Mantle ? He was, by his own admission, a bad husband, a bad father, a womanizer and an alcoholic. All because he could hit home runs ?” To which I answered, in my innocence: “Well, he could do it from both sides of the plate.”

     “Heroes” are a peculiar phenomenon, especially for the young who idealize the world and perceive only the exterior of that world. Mickey Mantle, the handsome slugger and Yankee champion who overcame bedeviling injuries and who seemed on the surface to live life to the fullest and to enjoy it the most, was a natural hero to the youth of a certain age. In my day, every Yankee fan had a “secondary” favorite player, because it was assumed that Mickey Mantle was the favorite. Essentially, to say that “Mickey Mantle was my favorite player” was to say nothing of substance, and even indicated that you didn’t know much about baseball. “Of course he is…but who else do you like?”

    Jane Leavy’s compelling biography of the Mick (aptly named, “The Last Boy”) exposes both the perils and rewards of hero worship. Ironically, and perhaps as a testament to Mantle’s iconic status in American life, the more damaging the disclosures – the greater the openness and honesty about his numerous flaws – the more heroic he becomes. Clearly, as the title indicates, he would not have been able to conceal his debauchery and excesses in the modern era. Reporters covered him and covered for him, and were just uninterested in exposing the seamier aspects of his life, even reveling in his sordid “accomplishments.” (In one celebrated case, Mantle’s 1961 pursuit of Babe Ruth’s single season home run record – in competition with Roger Maris – fell short when Mantle was unable to play past mid-September because of a “hip injury.” The injury, apparently, was in reaction to an injection given him by a quack doctor to combat the effects of an STD Mantle had contracted.) Today, Mantle would be scorned, tarred, feathered and publicly humiliated. And yet…

    His life story fascinates and he is constantly haunted by tragedy. It is a rags-to-riches story that is part of American legend. He was born in Depression-era Oklahoma to a miner father who would die at 40 (and whose early death Mantle felt he himself would suffer), but who lived his life through his son. Mutt Mantle pushed, challenged and goaded Mickey to baseball greatness, in legendary ways: forcing him to switch-hit, imposing practice and repetition on him, and – in the most famous example – shaming him into continuing to play when Mantle’s first trip to the majors fizzled. Back in the minors, and striking out with abandon, Mantle decided to quit and return home. His father – who unbeknownst to them at the time, would be dead within a year – visited him in Kansas City, and in stark contrast to the soft, tender-loving care and empathy of the modern parent, offered his son this pointed message: “You gutless coward. I thought I raised a man. I guess I was wrong. Come home, I’ll get you a job in the mines, you loser…” or something to that effect. These days, Mutt Mantle would be hauled before Child Services and prosecuted for abuse.

   The term “hero” is used in different contexts. As a “man admired for his achievements and noble qualities,” Mantle falls short. Baseball may mirror life, but it is only a sport, a diversion from what is real and important in life. But if a hero is a person “who shows great courage,” then Mantle represents something mythic that still touches the American soul. As a child, he was sexually abused (to which some attributed his persistent infidelities and numerous dalliances, of Wilt Chamberlain-like proportions; Chamberlain, at least, never married) – but he never spoke about his abuse until late in life. He suffered as a teenager from osteomyelitis, a bone inflammation that disqualified him from military service, yet that did not inhibit his speed or ability to generate power. He tore his knee ligaments in the 1951 World Series (his rookie year), and would never again play without pain – even playing with the bad knee for two more years before having surgery, something inconceivable today. In his last four years, he played while barely able to walk, being wrapped in tape like a mummy before each game, grimacing with each swing. So, why play ?

     The Mickey Mantle story is alluring because the young, healthy Mantle ran like the wind. Contemporaries testified that no one ever ran as fast from home to first. While not a large person by today’s standards (he played at 5’ 11” and 195 pounds), his bat speed and perfect swing generated such power that his home runs were mammoth blows. No one ever hit the ball harder or farther. In 1953, one famous blast was “measured” at 565 feet, almost unimaginable (indeed, it was; 50 years later, Leavy interviewed eyewitnesses and the boy who caught the ball, and retained physicists to calibrate distance and power, and concludes that the ball traveled perhaps 615 feet ! Still, it is acknowledged to be the longest home run ever hit.) Twice, Mantle’s home runs hit the upper façade at the old Yankee Stadium, with the second shot (in 1963) still rising (according to eyewitnesses) as it struck the overhang – which precluded it from traveling perhaps 600 feet on the fly. (The next day while flying at 30,000 feet, a teammate needled the unfortunate pitcher: “Did you see that ?” “What?”  “Mantle’s ball just flew over the plane.”)

    He was always gracious to teammates, self-deprecating in his humor, naturally humble (he admitted he knew “nuthin’” about hitting – he just swung as hard as he could at whatever he saw), generous to a fault (giving away most of his money until he found himself broke in the early 1980s and had to re-invent himself as a huckster and autograph signer), and he never complained about pain, injuries or suffering. And he won – 12 pennants and 7 world championships.

      And yet he could be rude, crude, inappropriate and downright vulgar in the presence of women, and did not warm to the fans and the media until late in his career, and really only after his playing days ended. He loved his wife, but cheated on her incessantly, even separating from her in the last decade of his life and living openly with a mistress. He considered himself an absent and desultory father, with his main contribution to their education introducing them to alcohol before they were teenagers. The entire family – Mickey, wife, all four sons (two of whom are already deceased) – battled alcoholism. Mantle drank to excess, and literally drank himself to death, destroying his liver and then losing a battle to cancer after he obtained a liver transplant – just months after leaving the Betty Ford Clinic sober. He was 64 when he died.

    What to make of such a life ? Where is the heroism that would induce youngsters to want to run like him (head down), don a helmet like him (from back to front), swing like him (with rear leg locked in a power-L that generated more power), and play in and through pain ? “Heroes” reflect both our aspirations for greatness and an opportunity to live vicariously through another, especially when our own lives are mired in routine and produce little that is noteworthy. The search for heroes is then both a human necessity – and a human failing, a weakness that drives us to perceive greatness in fame and not in the enduring accomplishments of happy marriages, moral children, and lives of integrity.

     Mickey Mantle saw through the mirage even while he was playing, but perhaps saved his greatest swings for the end of his life. In his last days, Mantle pummeled himself publicly for squandering his life and his talent, for shortening his career by not taking care of himself, and for setting a poor example for his children and others who looked up to him. In perhaps his most famous statement, he was asked in a TV interview about being a role model. Worn and emaciated from cancer, he answered: “I’d like to say to kids out there, if you’re looking for a role model, this is a role model. Don’t be like me.”

     As the anti-hero, perhaps Mantle finally became the true hero – a symbol of courage, honesty, contrition and candor. In openly coming to grips with his frailties, he showed authenticity and strength, and offered an enduring legacy of how (not) to live.

Appeasement

     The bar has been so lowered regarding President Obama’s support for Israel (and most other traditional American allies) that there was palpable relief in Democratic circles when the US administration vetoed a UN Security Council resolution last week that would have declared Israeli settlements “illegal,” to be followed inevitably by sanctions and the like. Nevertheless, even that high point of “support” for Israel (taken for granted in American diplomacy since the Reagan administration) was marred by an accompanying statement in which the American UN Representative apologized, in effect, for the veto, denouncing Israeli settlements in the heartland of Israel as “illegitimate” and as “undermining” the possibility of peace in the region.

    Typical for the United Nations, the debate centered on Israel – on whether Jews can add a room to a home in Bet El – when seemingly weightier matters (oh, the riots sweeping the Arab world, involving the murder of thousands of civilians in several countries by government forces) have been completely ignored. The Security Council has not yet entertained any motion to denounce Libya, Iran, Bahrain et al for their repressive crackdowns. That is why UN actions and statements deserve no attention at all.

    But what would induce the Obama administration to embrace the narrative of the Arab world, which places the Israel dispute at the center of all Mideast strife to deflect attention from its own corruption? Why would Obama believe that the Arab world can somehow be mollified, i.e., reach some accommodation with Israel that will ensure peace, stability and prosperity for all? To the extent that Obama has articulated a world view, it has been based on fantasy, wishful thinking and a reflexive antagonism to traditional American values. It might be incompetence, but it is not animus; the appeasement reflex generally follows from a particular world view and set of core values. Appeasers are often true believers and not simply naïve dreamers.

    A recent book entitled “Munich 1938” by the historian David Faber probes the late 1930s mindset and actions of those who gave “appeasement” a bad name, in particular British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain. Faber’s accounts are so richly detailed it is as if he were an eyewitness to the proceedings. He vividly describes rooms, views, menus, moods, and conversations – all drawn from diaries and records of the participants, both British and German – as well as the goals and objectives of the participants to the protracted negotiations. In short order – less than a year – the British abandoned Austria to Hitler (the Anschluss that the Austrian government had opposed, until it was deposed), the Sudetenland (a part of Czechoslovakia that abutted Germany and had a majority German-speaking population, and then Czechoslovakia itself. Chamberlain himself made three trips to Germany (the first time he had ever flown on a plane; he managed by drinking himself into a mild stupor) to appease Hitler, and each time he succumbed to ever greater demands.

      What is less known or appreciated is that Chamberlain, rather than being the target of ridicule as he became later, was extolled by his peers with each succeeding trip – as a man of vision and peace, and a moral beacon to warmongers such as Churchill, his most bitter adversary. The media trumpeted: “One of the finest, most inspiring acts of all history… of course, some Jews…are furious.” The church, the media, and the society elites were all enthusiastically supportive even if it meant betraying an ally like Czechoslovakia. Chamberlain was a hero – although not to his own Foreign Office who mocked his naiveté and repeated travels. (A skeptical Foreign office ditty: “If at first you don’t concede, fly, fly again” – responding to Chamberlain’s own statement, “if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.”)

       There was opposition, but it was a distinct minority. Perhaps the bravest – although he was not outspoken at all – was Foreign Secretary Anthony Eden who resigned in protest even before the Anschluss was settled.  Each summed up their respective opinions of policies, process and personalities in a very telling way. Chamberlain: “I fear the difference between Anthony and me is more fundamental than he realizes. At bottom he is really dead against making terms with the dictators.”  Eden – “Neville believes that he is a man with a mission to come to terms with the dictators.” (Interestingly, the German Chief of Staff Ludwig Beck also resigned in protest of Hitler’s constant threats to invade Austria if he did not get his way.) Only Churchill and a handful of others were outraged, and bitingly critical of Chamberlain’s weaknesses – for which they were pilloried by the media and the public.

     Hitler knew precisely how to take advantage of Chamberlain, who was desperate for peace, and he used threats of war, and repeated mobilizations, to wear down all his interlocutors.  He was an evil master of psychological pressure, keeping negotiators waiting for hours and then greeting them warmly, or meeting them right away in full fury and contempt. Hitler would up the ante every time an agreement seemed near, pretending that Chamberlain had misunderstood, even once preventing Chamberlain from having an aide or interpreter present so the protocol would be based on Hitler’s (and his interpreter’s) recollection. Hitler also spiced the negotiations with mass rallies at which hundreds of thousands of Germans gathered in public squares to hear of the historic injustices done to Germany that he would rectify, and how the great German race could not abide having Germans disunited (hence, Anschluss) or living under foreign rule (hence, Sudetenland), thus demonstrating to the British the widespread public support for his policies. Hitler was alternately callous and unyielding, and then malleable. Hitler said to his commanders while planning the invasion, later aborted by surrender, of Austria : “I don’t want men of intelligence, I want men of brutality.” Later, Hitler’s minions told Chamberlain that Hitler did not want to have to bomb Prague into submission: “he hated the thought of little babies being killed by gas bombs.” Eerie, and sinister, in light of subsequent events – the murder of more than one million Jewish children in the Nazi Holocaust.

     The final Hitler-Chamberlain meeting took place in Munich, and an agreement was signed on September 30, 1938, giving Germany the right to annex the Sudetenland within one week. Non-Germans would have to leave without compensation for their property. German troops had already amassed along the Czech-German border. In his mind, Chamberlain had saved Prague and Czechoslovakia’s independence:  “I am sure that someday the Czechs will see that what we did was to save them for a happier future.”  Upon his arrival back at 10 Downing Street, Chamberlain reluctantly said a few words (his wife pushed him) that would become his pathetic legacy, saying that he came back from Germany with “peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.”  (Hitler had signed a side paper pledging that their agreement is “symbolic of the desire of our two peoples never to go to war with one another again.” Questioned by his aides, Hitler mocked it – saying that he was just giving the “nice old gentleman…my autograph as a souvenir.” )

     After Munich, two ministers resigned from the British Cabinet, but Churchill was the most strident voice in opposition: “we have suffered a total and unmitigated defeat. All is over… Silent, mournful, abandoned, broken Czechoslovakia recedes into darkness. Hitler, instead of snatching his victuals from the table, has been content to have them served to him course by course.” 

     The Czechs had not even been allowed to participate in the negotiations over their fate, with Chamberlain lying in stating that there was no time to invite them; in reality, Hitler refused to participate if the Czechs were present. A motion in Parliament in support of Chamberlain’s efforts carried overwhelmingly, 366-144. The Western world was euphoric. The London Times editorialized: “No conqueror returning from a victory on the battlefield has come adorned with nobler laurels than Mr. Chamberlain from Munich yesterday.” FDR pronounced Chamberlain a “good man.” The overwhelming sensation, said Isaiah Berlin, was “shame and relief” – shame at abandoning democratic Czechoslovakia and relief at the avoidance of war. The ecstasy lasted only a few weeks, until the violence of Kristallnacht on November 9, 1938 pricked the illusory bubble of Hitler’s moderation.

       Hitler perceived Chamberlain as a patsy, rendered spineless by Western decadence. In October 1938 – just a week after the agreement was trumpeted – Hitler told his cabinet “I shall not occupy Prague for six months or so. I can’t bring myself to do such a thing to the old fellow at the moment.” Five months later, Hitler invaded and conquered the rest of Czechoslovakia with little resistance.  In August 1939, persuading his generals that neither Britain nor France would hasten to defend Poland if attacked, Hitler said: “Our enemies are small worms. I saw them at Munich.”

       The Oslo process carried with it the same delusions and willful disregard of reality as did Munich, with one major difference. In September 1993, Israel’s Ambassador to the United States, Itamar Rabinovitch, came to Queens to try to enlist the support of the Jewish community for the peace process (at the forum, he was regrettably pelted with tomatoes and eggs – and in a shul, no less.) I recall that one questioner directly compared Israel’s concessions and Rabinovitch’s enthusiasm for them (he later wrote a book called “The Brink of Peace,” about Israel and Syria) to Chamberlain’s appeasement at Munich, a loaded comparison to be sure. No one objected to placing Arafat in the Hitler role. But I interjected that comparing Oslo to Munich, and by extension Yitzchak Rabin to Neville Chamberlain, was unfair – to Chamberlain. Chamberlain negotiated with Hitler over Czechoslovakia, someone else’s land; he didn’t surrender Scotland and agree to negotiate in the future over rights to London.

     But the allure of appeasement will always exist, with peace just around the corner, if only… The good-hearted but naïve will always be exploited by the diabolical, clever evildoer. The wicked always have the advantage in the short term as they are unencumbered by morality, decency and the need for public support. But to be good-hearted and clear-headed are not incompatible. It requires the clear articulation of core values and non-negotiable principles, and a backbone capable of withstanding pressure from adversaries and rosy-eyed optimists alike. Israel has not fully recovered from the Oslo debacle, nor has it held accountable its perpetrators. Most importantly, Israel has not yet enunciated a coherent vision of its red-lines or its objectives, and as such remains subject to the whims of an American president whose view of the world is so fanciful, and whose concept of American interests so tenuous, that his statecraft is muddled and uncertain and his reliability as an ally in doubt.

Democracy’s Flaw

     The turmoil in the Muslim world is both shocking and familiar. It is shocking because dictatorships usually engender stability – even if the stability is coerced – and because the media drumbeats always portray the fearless leader as a national symbol of glory and strength, beloved by the masses. Tunisia and Egypt – now with changes of government, albeit uncertain ones – have already succumbed to mass protests. Now, discontent is boiling over in Yemen, Bahrain, Jordan, Syria, Iran and elsewhere. And these scenes are familiar because they are depicted as following a narrative – even a template – that Americans recognize: the yearnings for freedom and liberty that animated the American Revolution 235 years ago and the anti-Communist rebellion in Eastern Europe just two decades ago. That the narrative is familiar does not make it accurate, and thus the need for caution and guarded pessimism.

     We are not dealing here with Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison has yet to be resurrected. There is not the slightest indication that true democracy is a desideratum of the protesters, who are faceless and without an obvious cause or banner. That the military rulers, for example, have maintained that the Egyptian-Israel peace treaty will be honored, was to be expected. What was concealed, though, was the antipathy to the treaty by others who are being touted as presidential material – one, the Western hero Ayman Nour, who was imprisoned by Mubarak for running against him in the last “election,” has already announced both his candidacy and the “irrelevance” of the treaty, which, to his mind, needs to be re-negotiated. Others range from lukewarm to hostile, and the Muslim Brotherhood is obviously antagonistic, having assassinated Anwar Sadat almost 30 years ago for, among other sins, his treaty with Israel.

     Winston Churchill said it best: “Democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried.” The cuteness of the remark obscures the insight. The strength of democracy is that it allows a majority of people to chart their own destiny, and allows the governed to regularly give their consent to those who govern. The underlying assumption of democracy (as we know it) is that people can be trusted to make cogent, intelligent, rational and sophisticated decisions about the type of society, laws, and rulers they want. Unfortunately, that assumption reflects the great flaw of democracy: sometimes the people don’t know – or care – what they’re doing; sometimes the people will sacrifice stability, common sense and long-term goals for the appeal of oleaginous demagogues, insincere promises, and short-term lucre. In an American context – in the world’s greatest democracy – we are not unfamiliar with mobs voting for poor choices – crooks, thieves, knaves and thugs who make outlandish promises they have no intention of fulfilling. What can we then say about the rest of the world ?

    It needs to be remembered that Adolf Hitler ran in democratic elections, and although his party never won a majority of the votes, he did eventually win a plurality that led to his appointment as Chancellor. However we look at it, with all possible caveats, democratic elections brought a Hitler to power. We would like to think that a Stalin, a Mao, a Tito, et al would not have been elected by free people; don’t be too sure. Stalin and Mao, murderers of more than 100,000,000 of their own countrymen, are still enormously popular in their countries. (Mao’s portrait “graces” every Chinese bill in circulation.) What has become a modern-day mantra – the fear of “one man, one vote, one time” – is not far from reality. There are many people who will vote to be enslaved, as long as it is not presented as enslavement. For that reason, Aristotle deprecated democracy as “mob rule.”

    In that sense, the Muslim Middle East represents a particular muddle. Americans and Westerners may fantasize that Egyptians, Tunisians – and perhaps Bahrainis, Yemenis, Syrians, etc. – will overthrow their autocrats and implement parliamentary or republican democracies, in which authorized representatives accountable to the people enact laws, minority rights are protected, basic civil rights are preserved, liberty and free enterprise are guaranteed, and power changes hands through orderly elections whose outcomes are heeded. But that is a pipedream, as likely as a candidate in any of those elections running on a pro-Zionist platform.

          It is almost impossible to conjure a scenario in which a democracy will be established and sustained in any of those countries. Three possibilities are much more likely, each fraught with potential danger. In Egypt, for example, the army has seized power, after orchestrating an overthrow of Mubarak, and military control of government is a common phenomenon. Mubarak, Sadat and Nasser all had military backgrounds that assisted them in their drive for power. The army might also appoint a strong-man, essentially a replacement for the previous autocrat, but perhaps someone with a kinder face and more pleasing disposition. That strong-man might be from the military, or even a civilian who rules but owes his power to the military. Both those possibilities are washes, in which nothing really changes on the ground, but with two consequences. Stability is restored, but the seeds are planted for future discontent, and statecraft is again the domain of one person instead of a government. So, for example, Egypt-Israel relations could deteriorate further if the strong-man is so inclined, or revert to the coldness of the Mubarak era. All follows the whim of the ruler.

     Both those possibilities – in Egypt and elsewhere – are preferable to the third possibility: the encroachment by radical Islam on the organs of government and their eventual takeover. Unfortunately, the history of the Muslim world points to this as the most likely outcome except in those states in which there is a powerful, explicit and countervailing military presence. In Islam, power often flows to the lowest common denominator – to the most radical elements that are less hesitant about using force to sustain their power. (Khomeini’s secret police rivaled the Shah’s in their brutality.)And the lure of Islam as a simplistic answer to every problem that afflicts Muslim society is compelling enough to carry elections – along with the promise of paradise for voters and purgatory for opponents. They could easily win – just look at the electoral success of Hezbollah in Lebanon, now the controlling force in that country.

    The sands are shifting in the Middle East, and the unease in Israel is warranted. To date, the statements emanating from the Arab world are predictable. That two Iranian warships are sailing through the Suez Canal in the next few days en route to Syria – a clear provocation to Israel – is worrisome, and the sort of endeavor that Mubarak – an adversary of Iran – would not have permitted. Israel’s best hope for the short term rests in Arab strong men holding power, ameliorating the people’s economic woes, and ensuring stability and the maintenance of ties and interests. It also has to re-calibrate its diplomacy and realize the futility of exchanging real assets for the personal commitments of tenuous dictators.

    Indeed, its best strategy is one that was articulated years ago by Natan Sharansky (who greatly influenced President Bush): insist on real democratization in the Arab world as a pre-condition to diplomatic progress. That should guarantee a long and endless process that allows Israel sufficient time and opportunity to put facts on the ground that make Jewish settlement in Israel permanent and attractive and Arab residence temporary and unappealing.     

     What it should not do is look to the superficial aspects of democracy – an election – as a sign of a greater transformation. Often, when “the people have spoken,” they have either made no sense, or have acted contrary to their real interests and wellbeing. That is democracy’s internal – and eternal – weakness.